Boydtalk

Happy New Year

2012-01-12T21:47:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year!

We are working on a new web site and blog. Stay tuned...
-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

The Markets Decide as Risk Increases

2011-11-22T11:41:00.000-05:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The markets have decided that things do not look good.

Spreads between Treasuries and Corporate Bonds are increasing and relatively high. Volatility measures remain high and increasing. Both point to market weakness and elevated risk.

Markets will bounce up from this oversold condition, but the trend is still negative.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Approaching a Decision

2011-11-16T17:09:00.000-05:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

After going sideways from August to October as the European Debt Crisis unfolded, US stocks (SPY) moved up a bit higher, but are stuck in a "flag" pattern waiting for more news. We remain very cautious as well, waiting for some sign of confidence that Congress can make a rational decision, and whether Europe can keep it all together. - JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Welcome Back and Watch Out!

2011-09-12T20:32:00.000-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Welcome back from those vacations to school and work. Stock and bond market participants are back as well, and they do not like what they see. The uncertainty with sovereign debt in Europe threatens financial stocks and bonds worldwide. The lack of clear direction and action from Washington also makes the markets uneasy. This is usually the time to seize opportunities, but we will wait to let the markets show their fear before jumping back in. Indicators of financial risk are still rising so waiting a bit longer appears to be the prudent course. The VIX volatility index is show above. The market will move up when the VIX comes back down.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Visible Risks

2011-08-09T19:33:00.000-04:00

Visible Risks:

1. Panic in the stock market developing.
2. Further problems in Europe affecting Banks worldwide.
3. Double Dip Recession in the US

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Gold vs Gold Mining Companies

2011-08-09T19:17:00.000-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

An interesting divergence is occurring between Gold (as represented by the exchange traded fund GLD) and Gold Mining Stocks (XAU). They normally follow each other but this has not been the case lately. If you own mining stocks they have held up better than the stock market generally, but have not participated in the rally in the actual metal. Howard Ruff, an expert who has followed gold for decades, expects these to eventually converge with the mining stocks rising. This kind of divergence may also be caused by the decline in other metals that are part of the mining production, or perhaps an overall decline in the demand for gold for industry due to the exceptionally high price. I have seen the same thing occur with Oil and Oil Companies when the price gets exceptionally high.
-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Market Update

2011-08-09T18:58:00.000-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

My last post indicated a possible bounce to the upper red line, but that was blown away by the surprise timing of the S&P downgrade of US Debt. Today we had a dramatic short covering rally that took us a way back up but provides not evidence that the down trend is over. We expect the volatility to decline but the bear market to continue. And the market has given us a chance to reposition any market overexposure. Hang on for the ride. -
BOYDSTRATEGY.COM
If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.JOHN

Is the Mini Panic Over?

2011-08-05T16:04:00.000-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The chart shows hourly market action of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The surge in volume appears to have peaked, so there is a good chance that the market will rebound to the red line before heading lower. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

The "DEBT LIMIT STALEMATE" and Your Investments

2011-07-29T11:26:00.000-04:00

Here are several thoughts on the current situation:

Fixed Rate Annuities are not in danger.
Fixed Income (Bond) accounts are not in danger.
The US will pay its obligations to bond holders.
Stocks are subject to the emotional impact of "Fear Mongering" by the President, Congress and the Media.
We will not have a meaningful Debt Limit Agreement out of Congress any time soon.
The mess in Washington will have a negative effect on economic growth, worldwide.

We are currently reducing exposure to Basic Material stocks and Energy Stocks and Increasing Exposure to Precious Metals stocks and Cash Reserves.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Billions Trillions, Who Knows!

2011-04-20T10:55:00.000-04:00

In my previous post, I mentioned the 14 Billion in US debt ... silly me, I must be a bit old fashion as I can't get used to the word Trillion! -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

A Shot Across the Bow

2011-04-19T13:45:00.001-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

S&P put the nation on notice that they could be subject to a bond rating decrease from the current AAA rating for US Debt. The bond market celebrated by with a rate decline (and existing bonds increased in value), rather than a rate increase! All in all, the warning increases the chances of a successful effort by the Congress to move the US Government toward a balance budget and control of the growing 14 Billion in Debt. The chart of 5 Year treasury rates is shown above. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Trackng Gasoline (UGA)

2011-04-12T21:02:00.001-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The chart above (Green Line) is of a relatively new exchange traded fund (symbol UGA), that tracks changes in gasoline futures. The crude oil price index is also shown in red. Perhaps you can make money on gas prices to help offset your cost at the pump! Go to the UGA link to learn more about this fund. Caution: exchange traded funds are have a number of investment risks that you need to understand before you actually make an investment. I am not making any recommendation here, I just found this interesting. I am also glad we drive a Prius!

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Inflation Comparison

2011-04-12T20:42:00.000-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The red line shows CPI inflation which excludes food and energy (Core Inflation). The one we live with is the blue line which includes all items in the CPI index. While the Core rate is just above 2% the CPI for all items including food and energy has risen above 6%.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Making Sense of the Markets

2011-04-12T20:07:00.001-04:00

It has been a couple of months since I have commented on the markets. I have trying to make sense of it all in the context of the Middle East "revolutions" and the horrible events in Japan. Basically the market has pretty much ignored all these events. The chart above took a dive with the events in Japan, but the sell off was less than 5% and we have now rebounded strongly. The forces of cheap money and economic recovery are more important to the stock market and corporate profits.

Meanwhile, we have kept our accounts fully invested in response to our technical indicators and the principle that we should not fight the FED. We have reduced overseas exposure somewhat as we think that the geopolitical events will have a negative effect overseas.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Egyptian Uprising

2011-02-11T22:05:00.000-05:00

The easy part is now over. I am concerned that this will not turn out well for the people of Egypt in the short run and for us in the long run. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Total Government Employment (BLS)

2011-02-04T20:34:00.001-05:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is a 10 Year Chart of Total Government Employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Total Priviate Employment (BLS)

2011-02-04T20:31:00.003-05:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is a 10 year chart of Total Private Employment in the US from the Bureau of Labor Satisitics (BLS).

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Markets Watching the Middle East

2011-01-28T20:26:00.000-05:00

Click Chart to Enlarge

Stocks down and gold up heading into the weekend with the uncertainty in Egypt. No big reaction yet, however.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

The Fall of Mubarak

2011-01-28T20:10:00.000-05:00

"Absolute power corrupts absolutely'. These guys never learn from history. The pretend democracy in Egypt is collapsing, and the Muslim Brotherhood is jumping for glee. While it looks like the military is making deals on the side already, radicals like the Muslim Brotherhood are the ones that win when there is chaos. What will it mean to us if they gain more power? I don't think it will be good. Check out Debkafile for up to date intelligence (Israeli view). -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM
If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

State of the Union II

2011-01-25T23:40:00.000-05:00

The President:

My first reaction is that the speech did not represent our "Sputnik Moment".

The President failed to show an understanding of the poor financial condition of the country or relate a coherent plan to address it. He seemed to indicate that we had plenty of time to grow our way out of the problem by freezing a small part of the federal budget, and continuing to provide targeted stimulus or incentives from government. I can see no reason to accept this view of "the state of the union", as the FED continues to keep us at near zero interest rates to prop up our economy.

Items like the total reorganization of the government is simply not believable to me.

His pledge to veto any bill with "earmarks" was the best part from my point of view. (Why was VP Biden laughing following this pledge?)

The applause and facial expressions seemed to indicate little belief in what the President was saying by either party.

The Republican Response by Rep Paul Ryan:

All I got out of this was that "spending cuts must come first", and "limited government and free enterprise" made our country great. I have not seen any Republicans really limit government in recent years. I did not see any value in listening to this instant "response". Perhaps they should respond with actions rather than words.

The TEA Party Caucus - Rep Michele Bachmann:

My heart is with the TEA Party Caucus, but I don't think Ms. Bachmann listened to the President's speech, as she missed that the President agreed to medical tort reform and health care portability that she was criticizing. She spent a lot of time talking about the past. Her punch list of things the President could do were valid, but a better thought out response, would have been of more persuasive.

Sorry to be so negative on the whole process tonight. I am always looking for great leadership to show up. Unfortunately none showed up tonight! -

JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

State of the Union

2011-01-25T20:32:00.000-05:00

Washington Post (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

It's not easy, but I avoid the commentators before or after the speech and prefer to actually listen to what the President and the "Loyal Opposition(s)" may have to say about where we are and what the government should or should not do to help "the folks". I try and form an understanding and opinion then check the propaganda that follows disguised as analysis by the press.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Sell or Buy Gold?

2011-01-25T20:10:00.001-05:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The current sell off in Gold may seem dramatic, but it is still within the "normal" range of recent volatility. It appears to be near a point where it could continue its climb to a higher level consistent with its behavior as a commodity in a very low interest rate environment. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM
If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

"The Long View" from American Funds

2011-01-14T15:01:00.001-05:00

The American Funds have consistently put out excellent market commentary for investors. This one appears to support the idea that we can expect a good investment environment for stocks going forward. With this, I agree. Check out The Long View -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Banks Still Accumilating Deposits

2011-01-14T08:49:00.000-05:00

Click Chart to Enlarge

Just thinking that when the flow of money into business lending changes direction, we could have a substaintial surge in the economy since banks are building a large deposit base. The longer it takes for the change, the bigger the reaction. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM
If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Low Rates Inflate Asset Prices

2011-01-03T18:41:00.001-05:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The chart shows the effect of the FED keeping short term rates very low and the response the price of stocks (SPY) and gold (GLD) prices. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Cudo's to Obama.

2010-12-10T18:15:00.001-05:00

From Fox News - Click Here for Source

Good for President Obama to openly consult with President Clinton on the economy (and of course political strategy). I think this will get a positive reaction from the American people and the business community. Clinton is starting to sound like a statesman. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Changing Interest Rates, Heads Up !!

2010-12-10T17:59:00.000-05:00

Click to Enlarge

The recent surge in interest rates (see 5 Year Treasury Yield above) came in response to the change in political winds and prospects of a more balanced economic policy from Washington. We are seeing some small increases in offer yields from fixed annuity providers, and there has been a crack in the value of high quality bond funds.

It is time to review all bond funds to see how sensitive they are to this rate increase as it appears likely that the trend up will continue in the short run.

Also, since short term rates are still pined down near zero by the FED, the time is approaching soon to take advantage of fixed income investments (individual bonds, CD's etc) in the 2_5 year maturity range.

This is also a positive indicator for the stock market. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Bill Me later?? - WARNING!

2010-12-06T12:08:00.001-05:00

While we are all happily shopping on and off line, I just wanted to share a recent experience with the "BillMeLater" credit service. We are accustom to this being a payment deferral (typically 6 months) that represents another discount on the purchase of an item. When this popped up as a choice for a office computer purchase, I just clicked it and assumed I would not have to pay for six months and could avoid any interest charges, as I have in the past. After getting my first late warning less than 30 days after the purchase, I called to find both a $25 late payment charge and that I was being charged interest at the rate of 19.99%.

After calling "Customer Service", "Amy A" explained that the 6 month promotion is only if it says "Same as Cash" or "6 Months Deferred Interest" on the offer from the company, and that if it just says "BillMeLater", it is just like any other credit card and the first payment is due on the first billing cycle.

I opined that a this seemed misleading and she promptly credited back the $25 charge as a "one time courtesy."

Welcome to the new Financial Regulation bill and credit reform! Caveat emptor!

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

No Oil Drilling? Again? What's up with this?

2010-12-02T19:10:00.001-05:00

Ken Salazar

"Virginia’s plan to be the first East Coast state to have oil drilling off its shores was scuttled Wednesday after Interior Secretary Ken Salazar let it be known that new drilling leases will be a long time coming." LoudounTimes.com -JOHN

My Thoughts:

1. This will decrease our Energy Independence and therefore reduce out National Security.
2. This will prevent jobs or cause jobs to be lost when we are spending Billions to try and create jobs.
3. This will decrease Oil supply and thereby put upward pressure on Oil Prices.
4. To reduce the risk of a spill, put some unemployed oil engineers to work improving safety.
5. Who is pulling the strings of the Administration.

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Pumping Up the Asset Bubble

2010-12-02T18:39:00.002-05:00

The attached article from Bloomberg discusses Philadelphia FED President's comments on the threat of inflation from the current 600 Billion in Quantitative Easing. But isn't this the intent? Inflation means that government pays back debt with cheaper dollars and all the government and private pension plans are sorely underfunded due to the 2008 losses. Buy your necessities now if you can, and keep your money in the equity market. As our economist George Dagnino says, "Don't fight the FED!" They are pumping up the asset values on purpose.
-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Thanks and Giving

2010-11-27T18:54:00.000-05:00

Just a few thoughts today on giving thanks and giving. I am thankful for many things. My family, my freedom, my work and what is a very comfortable life. It is not always easy, but I do seek to find gratitude in as much of life as I can. It is the only way to really pursue happiness.

Giving to others is also part of this. I am repelled by the crowds pushing their way over each other to buy the "Black Friday" deal, but maybe these folks are just trying to give to someone they love. It seems a bit misdirected to fight over a particular purchase, but underneath it all, they are just trying to give to others. The harder things to give are our time and attention in relating to others.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Veteran’s Day 2010

2010-11-11T09:03:00.001-05:00

-JOHN AND ROSEMARIE

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Inflation (CPI Urban All Items)

2010-11-06T20:18:00.001-04:00

Click Chart to Enlarge

After a sharp dip into negative territory, Inflation has popped back, but is not as strong as in the 2003 - 2008 time period. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Not a good sign for the Economy

2010-11-06T20:02:00.001-04:00

Click To Enlarge

The money is still accumulating in banks (St Louis Fed Chart). The economic expansion cannot take off until the money starts flowing back out (see previous recession on chart for a comparison). - JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Market Reactions

2010-11-06T19:50:00.001-04:00

Click Chart to Enlarge

This chart shows the stock market (SPY) and the ETF (OIL) that represents the price of Oil. Both surged when the FED announced the Quantitative Easing using another 600 Billon, which would normally be expected to inflate asset (stocks, commodities, real estate). Of course, better job numbers and a shift in the political winds also supported the rally. - JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Schwab Institutional Conference

2010-10-27T10:55:00.000-04:00

I am attending the annual conference put on by Schwab Institutional being held in Boston this year. A comment by Liz Ann Sonders (Chief Investment Strategist at Schwab) caught my attention the first day:

She was explaining where we are right now with Real Estate in terms of a "Real Mortgage Rate". She defines this a the Mortgage Loan Rate minus the Expected Growth of Home Values. At the peak of the market this was about a 6% loan rate, minus a 17% growth rate for a resulting effective Real Mortgage Rate of -11%. (No wonder people were speculating on homes! Perhaps the Fed should have raised rates back then!) During the decline in prices we had 5% rates with a negative 20% growth rate, so this made the effective Real Mortgage Rate very high at +15%. Now where are we? Current Mortgage Loan Rates are around 4% and the expected price growth is (in line with inflation) at about 1%. So the Real Mortgage Rate is about 3% ( 4% - 1%) so buying real estate now appears very attractive!

She also noted that, personally, she and her husband have bought their retirement home in Florida even though they have many years to work. They are real believers in the opportunity that is being presented right now.
-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

No Payments (Interest) for 6 Months? Woops!

2010-10-27T10:29:00.000-04:00

Just a heads up on how they are offering "free money for 6 months" that is not really completely free. Rosemarie and I took the "plunge" and bought a Sleep Number Bed (it is great!), and when the sales person offered no payments for six months, I said yes. After all, why not save a few dollars and take the pressure off cash flow. I have done this in the past quite successfully. The key is to pay it off by the deadline and you save all the interest cost.

Somehow in the joy of our purchase, I failed to note that they now require minimum payments of principal each month to obtain the waiver of the interest. Well, shame on me for not reading the fine print. I started receiving calls from them right after I had ignored the first $100 minimum payment. Apparently I am not the only one surprised by this as they quickly waived the late fee when I called to pay the bill. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Gold Prices

2010-10-19T19:01:00.000-04:00

Gold is having a good ride, but I am concerned that this particular commodity is being manipulated. A change in the political winds could bring this balloon back to ground, particularly if the future expectation is for a strengthen of the dollar and reining in the debt-JOHN BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Cash Reserves

2010-10-10T20:44:00.001-04:00

The current economic situation is sometimes causing people to take risks with money that should just be left in the bank. The very low interest rates for bank accounts is starting to really bother people, but money that may be needed at any time should not be invested in stocks or gold or any other investment which does not guarantee the principal and allow you to get your hands on it quickly. During periods where you might loose your job, have a health issue or make a major repair, it is more important than ever to keep safe money available to meet your income needs. -ROSEMARIE

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Interest Rates Drive Assets Higher

2010-10-10T20:22:00.002-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

They are calling it "Quantitafive Easing" at the FED, but to me it is just pumping cash into the econmomy. This will be good for investments while it lasts. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Rates Hit New Low - A Hidden TAX!

2010-10-01T21:32:00.002-04:00

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is of great concern to me as an investment adviser to retirees. The trend for the last three Decades has been down. From the US Government's (Taxpayers) point of view, this long term secular trend has allowed the borrowing of huge sums of money without suffering a proportional increasing in debt service. The average cost of the government debt is in the mid 3% range.

Many of those taxpayers are retired, or will be retiring soon, and a great deal of their money is properly invested in bank accounts, Certificates of Deposits and other highly rated bond investments. During the time when these people were saving thier money they were accustom to much higher rates than we have seen during the last few years. This makes it very difficult to generate income without significant risk to principal for retirement needs.

For these retirees this represents a hidden tax. The typical middle class retiree is often in a relatively low tax bracket, but the artificially low interest rates (Treasury Rates are being held below Inflation Rates) driven by monetary and fiscal policy represents as much as a 50% surtax on income generated to support retirement needs. We need to consider this issue in the national political debate -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Change of Trend in Stocks?

2010-10-01T20:34:00.000-04:00

Click Chart to Enlarge

Does this represent a change of trend on the upside? We are selling some short term investments into this rally, but expect to replace them with new investments as the market corrects back about 5% in October. -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

A Pledge to America

2010-09-23T19:52:00.001-04:00

Well, I am reading "A Pledge to America" put out by the GOP, but I think we all need to take what is said from now until November 2nd with a lot of skepticism. It seems to me that a total legislative mess is in the cards, so uncertainty and most of the current policies will continue. The markets represent votes with money and it does not seem to have any direction yet.

-JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Browse this Website!

2010-09-15T10:07:00.001-04:00

One of the most useful websites for retirement planning is the one maintained by Social Security. It really represents our government at its best. Check out one of my favorite pages: "Popular Baby Names" , then check out the more serious stuff. They are also developing an audio series explaining some of the complex areas of the law focused on disability questions, and you can actually apply for retirement benefits online. -ROSEMARIE

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Primary Vote in Massachusetts

2010-09-06T22:45:00.001-04:00

Vote - September 14th

Mark your calendar for one (1) week from tomorrow - September 14th. This will be an important primary and let's not leave it to the politicos to determine who wins and loses. Do your homework and vote!

Telegram "Election Central"

-JOHN and ROSEMARIE

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Sideways for Stocks?

2010-09-06T22:22:00.000-04:00

Click Image to Enlarge

From a historical perspective, we would expect a test of the lows in September or October, but in any event, it looks like "The Market" (SPY) is in a "wait and see" mood as we approach the November elections. Any breakout above or below the red channel lines will be significant -JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

SMALL is BIG!

2010-09-06T22:08:00.000-04:00

"President Barack Obama, in one of his most dramatic gestures to business, will propose that companies be allowed to write off 100% of their new investment in plant and equipment through 2011, a plan that White House economists say would cut business taxes by nearly $200 billion over two years...." By JONATHAN WEISMAN And JOHN D. MCKINNON - Wall Street Journal 9/6/2010

Am I missing something? If most of the jobs are created by small business, and the majority of these businesses are not capital intensive (service businesses, for example). Why does it make sense to created tax savings only for large, capital intensive businesses.

It appears that the economic advisers guiding the government are trying to stimulate the few businesses that employ a lot of employees in each firm, rather than focusing on the large number of businesses that can add one to five employees, or simply make any kind of investment in their firm that will indirectly add employment to the suppliers of equipment, software or services to that small firm. In other words, perhaps SMALL is BIG when it comes to investment to create jobs.

Another aspect of this bothers me. Tax savings can occur only if you are paying taxes. Many small businesses and some large ones are not generating profits, so taxes are relatively low and additional tax write offs are not of immediate value. Most small businesses do not pay taxes at the corporate level, so to help these businesses, the income tax on small business owners (remember those proverbial "rich" guys and gals earning more than $250,000 per year) could be reduced. Payroll tax reduction would also put cash flow into these businesses. That would give those small businesses the positive cash flow to allow them to borrow capital to take advantage of opportunities in their areas of business.

What am I missing? -JOHN

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Treasury Bond Surge

2010-08-25T11:36:00.001-04:00

This is a comparison showing the surge in Long Term Treasury Bonds that has been occurring. There is talk of a "bubble" in the Long Treasury, but instead, it may be forecasting another bout of deflation due to further economic slow down. This looks like more of a short term trading opportunity. We could be heading toward a "Japan" type of recovery with even lower long term interest rates. Also shown is a chart of GOLD and the DOLLAR which are showing a mild indication of fear.- JOHN

Click Chart to Enlarge

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this .do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Fear Index (VIX) Not Too Bad

2010-08-25T10:53:00.001-04:00

The CBOE VIX is a market indicator of stock market based fear. It is up but it is still within a normal range, so although it does not feel good right now, there appears to be no reason to become very conservative at this point.- JOHN

Click Chart to Enlarge

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Stocks in Trading Range

2010-08-25T10:06:00.000-04:00

We appear to be stuck in a trading range between the two Red Lines until the Fall elections or something else happens to move the markets. With uncertainty the bias is to drift lower.- JOHN

Click to Enlarge Chart

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Tax-achusetts, again?

2010-08-22T12:23:00.003-04:00

Thanks to Gubernatorial Candidate Charlie Baker here is an interesting chart and article from the Boston Globe on your real estate taxes! Don't hesitate to see your town about a tax abatement if you can qualify - and make a visit to the next town meeting! - ROSEMARIE

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

TIAA Real Estate Fund Check Up

2010-08-14T09:15:00.001-04:00

This fund is a convenient way to check in on the status of commercial real estate since it is a direct participation fund rather than a collection of REITs It appears to have finally turned the corner, but of course another recession could slow its recover. It appears to be lagging the stock market by about a year. - JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Still More Saving in Banks at a Nearly 0% Interest!

2010-08-13T20:46:00.001-04:00

Demand deposits going into commercial banks continue to grow. Money is not being invested in business or in the market as it was in 2003 after the last recession. When this changes, there is going to be a lot of money flowing into the stock market and great opportunities for growth. - JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM
If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Open FED Debate!

2010-08-13T16:52:00.001-04:00

An instructive and interesting exchange on Monitary Policy. It is good that the debate becoming more heated. Could it be a sign of a turning point? Link to VIDEO. - JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Rally Loosing Steam

2010-08-10T09:06:00.001-04:00

Some positive earnings and "relief" from the BP disaster have given us a summer rally, but it looks like the momentum is waning.- JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Just When I Was Starting to Relax on Vacation ...

2010-08-10T08:59:00.001-04:00

... Congress flew back to Washington DC and spent another 16 Billion! Since this makes no sense to me, it appears to be just buying votes. I am hopeful that the mid term 2010 elections will change the political direction back toward greater fiscal responsibility.- JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

A View of the Impact of Government on Business

2010-07-19T15:09:00.001-04:00

Thanks to PeterDag for bringing this article by Mort Zukerman to my attention: "Obama's Anti-Business Policies Are Our Economic Katrina". A bit long, but worth the time to understand where the real strength of our economy comes from and how government can get in the way. JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do n
ot represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

A Million Home Forclosures

2010-07-15T10:54:00.003-04:00

As I read the news this morning, the prediction was that home forclosures would top 1Million this year. This is truly very disturbing when looked at in terms of the number of lives affected by these numbers. There is, however, another part to this which I don't think is being reported. Of the 1M forclosures, how many people are just simply walking away from their mortgages because they feel no responsibility to meet their obligations given the government's encouragement in this area. I have heard comments to that effect many times in discussions with people. The usual comment is "Why wouldn't I just walk away from my mortgage?"

This is just a thought and I'd welcome your responses especially if you disagree!

Rosemarie

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Volatility Index, Risk and Fear

2010-07-08T17:27:00.001-04:00

Click to Enlarge

I look for objective, historical perspective when making investment decisions, where ever I can. In this case, the chart shows the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) which is a useful gauge of how much fear and perceived risk there is in the markets. Note the peaks in 2002, 2003, 2008 and 2010. Note also the relative size of the peaks. We are currently experiencing "Risk/Fear" peak similar to that of the 2003 market bottom. Also note that the best times to buy were when the VIX was above the average and declining as indicated by the S&P500 index (SPY) and the two green up arrows. That appear to be the position we are in right now.

One of the traps of using your gut as a measure of risk is that a recent event will be amplified in the perception of current events. Meaning that the 2010 peak in the VIX will 'feel" more like the 2008 peak than the 2003 peak. The reality is that the current level of risk and fear is about the same as in 2003 even though your "gut index" may be spiking higher right now. Again, the best time to invest in stocks is when perceived risk is above average but is declining. Such as right now.

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

GOLD vs Commodities

2010-06-29T22:24:00.001-04:00

This is a chart that compares securities representing all commodities (GSG) and Gold (GLD). Click on chart to enlarge.

Gold should not be going up when commodities are not based upon long term history. Note that the relationship changed in 2008 with the financial crisis.

This appears to be due to a perception (and reality) of financial risk continuing to increase. Apparently the depressing news and saturation advertising to "buy Gold" is having an effect. Is this telling us something about the world economy, or is it just another bubble that will pop when we have some good news? While there may be a short term opportunity to trade this trend, my gut tells me that buying Gold is too simple an answer to our problems. JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Financial Regulation Farce

2010-06-29T21:32:00.000-04:00

Here are my comments sent to Senator Scott Brown as he is at the center of the current debate on Financial Regulation (see Article) - JOHN

Senator Brown:

I want to lend my support to your opposition to a tax on small banks. As an independent financial professional I recognize that the current Financial Regulation bill does not address the problems or institutions that led to the financial crisis (eg Fannie and Freddie Mae). While there may be some useful items in the bill, I suspect that, buried in the 2000 or so pages, there is plenty of power shifting toward central government control that can only lead to further loss of our freedoms. Please continue your efforts to stop this type of flawed legislative process and move us to more simple and effective legislation that supports personal freedom and economic growth.

Sincerely,

John R Boyd, CFP

Boyd Financial Strategies Inc

Shrewsbury, MA

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

School is Out! Summertime!

2010-06-24T20:42:00.000-04:00

I am taking a few days with the grandkids to enjoy one of the local state parks.(Wells State Park in Strrbridge MA). What a gem, and so close to home. I hope each of you has a great summer!

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Sideways Stock Market in June

2010-06-24T20:33:00.002-04:00

The stock market is going nowhere in June as shown by the security that tracks the S&P 500 index (SPY) in the chart below. After breaking above the 200 day moving average it has pulled back to test the lows reached earlier this month. We are using this period as a time to reduce bond market holdings and increase stock market holdings in anticipation of a resumption of the "Bull" market marching to higher levels. The recovery continues, but with lots of bumps along the way Click on chart to Enlarge (Thanks to: http://www.freestockcharts.com/) .JOHN

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Inflation risk

2010-06-22T15:56:00.011-04:00

Let me welcome myself to your blog, John!! As they say, better late than never. It took me a while to decide on a topic of concern. Here it is!

There is still a lot of fear and insecurity out there on the part of the average person. People are committing large sums of money to the very institutions which got us into this trouble in the first place, namely the big banks. As a thank you, savers are once again getting cheated. When banks are charging 12% or more, on credit card interest, how do they justify paying 1% or even less on their savings accounts?

The psychology at work here is that; ” It is FDIC insured so I am safe!” Well, guess what, that is not necessarily true. Currently, the CPI is 2%. This means that if you are earning 1% or less in your bank accounts, your actual buying power is decreasing by 1% or more. In other words, you are losing money.

This is the time for investors to take a longer term approach. Don’t be afraid to reach for higher yields with the use of bonds or deferred annuities. If you deal with high quality companies and good ratings, the risks are not that great. Certainly no greater than the risk of losing 1% of the buying power on your money.

ROSEMARIE

BOYDSTRATEGY.COM

Ready for a Rally!

2010-06-09T11:52:00.001-04:00

Here are some comments from a respected guy (thanks to peterdag.blogspot.com for the heads up). You can access commentary from Blackstone at thier website.

“People are trying to protect themselves and they are willing to overpay for it,” said Wien, 77, the Blackstone adviser who foresaw last year’s gains in stocks and oil and predicts the S&P 500 will rally to 1,300 before ending 2010 little changed. “Bearishness is high. The best time to buy stocks is when the level of bearishness is at a peak.” Bloomberg

This makes sense to me. We have our finger on the trigger. JOHN

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Gulf Oil Leak > Underwater Cameras

2010-06-05T08:36:00.002-04:00

When I googled the oil cam from BP I got a lot of environmental sites that showed the PBS image from one of the cams and had a gallon counter to scare the heck out of us. I prefer to check the source, so here is the link to all of BP's ROV CAMS. I found interesting pictures on Skandi ROV2, but you need to check around on different ROVs at any point in time.
JOHN

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Is Your Bank Account Growing?

2010-06-04T20:37:00.001-04:00

As I am sure you know by now, I like charts. Charts like this one are available from the Federal Reserve.

What does it mean? We are saving lots of money right now in Banks (Commercial Bank Deposits) even though short term rates (3 mo CD) are very low. The amounts are headed to a new high in savings.. The grey areas show the "official" recession periods. After the 2002 recession deposits dropped. Not this time. Is this telling us that another recession is coming soon? JOHN

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Keep Some Powder Dry

2010-06-04T19:59:00.001-04:00

I was thinking about the dramatic increase in the stock market that occurred from March 2009 to March 2010. My conclusion was that this was driven by low interest rates and piles of cash earning nothing. As always, then, the self fulfilling nature of the market just took over. The important thing was that this was an unusually large and fast rally. So, it is not surprising that we would now have a larger than expected correction in stocks. Fear and greed are running high, so a nice buying opportunity could be at hand as the European problems spread - JOHN

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Correction Over?

2010-06-03T21:27:00.001-04:00

I am increasingly concerned that this correction is not over. Financial risk indicators are getting worse, not better. The chart shows the S&P500 index "kissing" the 200 Day moving average and failing to move above it. This is often followed by another decline in the short run.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Rosemarie's Comments

2010-06-03T21:21:00.000-04:00

I am pleased to announce that Rosemarie will join me in commenting on our BLOG.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Recovery Stalling?

2010-05-19T10:53:00.000-04:00

Commodity prices are starting to decline again. Inflation and higher interest rates is not in the cards right now.

At Least the Government Has Jobs!

2010-05-14T11:52:00.000-04:00

From the latest DOL Newsletter:

"What's Hot

Send U.S. Your Resume!

The federal government is streamlining its hiring process. Earlier this week, Secretary Solis joined Office of Personnel Management Director John Berry and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Sean Donovan at a press conference outlining the most extensive reform in federal hiring procedures in three decades. Several improvements are scheduled to go into effect this November — including one that will allow job seekers to submit their resume and cover letter as an application for employment. Currently, the federal hiring portal, usajobs.gov, uses complex questionnaires and essays for most applications for federal employment. Solis said the nation’s government needs to recruit and retain qualified applicants, and that the process should not get in the way of that goal. She also added that DOL alone is looking to fill some 3,000 career positions across the nation.

• Apply for Federal Job

• Read the President's Memorandum

• Read the News Release "

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Gold?

2010-05-12T20:07:00.004-04:00

I have been looking on how best own a position in Gold. It is costly and inefficient to buy gold directly, when most of your investments are in brokerage accounts. The Gold Exchange Traded Fund that I have been watching is symbol GLD.

Click on Chart to Enlarge.

My reluctance to buy this in client accounts as a hedge has been the fact that it is an security only backed by gold. Not the gold itself. The recent market melt down last week provided an opportunity to observe the behavior of GLD when all other stocks were plunging. The results were encouraging as shown in the chart. Also shown in the chart is the breakout of gold (GLD) above its previous high, as currency worries spread around the world this week.

Of course, the stock market still has to be open to buy or sell your position in GLD, so one would have been prevented from trading during a shut down that occurred following the 9/11 attacks. In that case, having the real thing would have been the better investment choice.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

What did Happen Last Thursday?

2010-05-10T11:38:00.000-04:00

Ok, here are three possibilities and I don't like the first two:
1. The exchange really does not know what happened or how to prevent it. If this is the case, the markets cannot be trusted or effectively regulated as they currently operate.

2. There was some nefarious manipulation of the trading (cyber-terror?) that no one will disclose at this point. Again, we cannot trust the market at this point.

3. The exchange will know what happened soon, and will announce it when they have an effective fix worked out. I hope so.

As an investment professional I am expected to build confidence in the markets with the "public" as this is in my interest, but I have to speak the truth. The stock market is trading as though number 3 is the correct answer. Again, I hope so.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Perspective from Dagnino

2010-05-10T11:12:00.001-04:00

Here is a helpful perspective from George Dagnino's newsletter today. Remember the good ol' days with interest rates between 4 and 6%? It looks like larger government as far as the eye can see right now, but this Fall's elections will provide an important indicator of the political direction.

"Investors, however, can benefit by focusing on two main trends.

One is the direction of the political mood. A larger government is
associated with slower growth in the economy, higher
unemployment, and slower growth in earnings.

The second one: short-term interest rates. Above 8%
they reflect high inflation and unemployment, slow
growth, and sharp recessions. Below 2% they imply
disinflation/deflation, high unemployment, and long
recessions. At the extremes equity markets provide low
returns and timing is essential. The rare golden eras:
short-term interest rates in the 4%-6% range." - http://www.peterdag.com/
http://www.peterdag.blogspot.com/

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Moving Too Fast - High Volitility Continues

2010-05-07T08:43:00.001-04:00

Since the middle of 2008 we have disucused the increase in stock market volatility. This is having two important effects as demonstrated by yesterday's abnormal sell off of nearly 1,000 points on the DJIA during the day. The first is that individual investors get turned off to investing, even through mutual funds. The second is that even the traders and speculators are chased out of the market by high speed computers at a few large firms. The traders and speculators provide the liquidly in orderly stock markets that we all need. The exchanges are in the process today of "breaking" (cancelling) the abnormal trades that occurred yesterday. This is not a good thing! The regulators need to slow down the high speed computer trading!

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Gold (GLD) and the Dollar (UUP)

2010-05-06T21:46:00.000-04:00

In a crisis with wide spread fear, the inverse relationship of the dollar and gold breaks down and both go UP!

Emerging Markets Down Less than Developed International Markets

2010-05-06T21:33:00.000-04:00

Emerging Markets appear to be tracking the US Market more closely than Developed International (Europe and Japan). Will we see a big European bank failure?

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Its Not Over Yet

2010-05-06T20:37:00.000-04:00

Jim Cramer's comments today on CNBC's Mad Money seem to make sense to me. This correction was already in progress and the continued bad news from Greece is enough to justify the 350+/- point drop in the DJIA Of course, the trading error with P & G made it all the more interesting with a temporary 900+ point drop. As Cramer indicated, panic selling like this can indicate a bottom, but this one does not appear to be a true capitulation. We are assuming that there will be a market test coming around the levels reached intraday today, but at least below the blue line on our chart.. Here is an updated chart of SPY (click to enlarge - courtsey http://www.freestockcharts.com/ ):

A Correction is Confrimed

2010-05-05T15:05:00.000-04:00

The problems in Europe have confirmed the technical indications that we are heading down for a bit in stocks. The long term is still positive for stocks. We are expecting about a 10% pull back from the peak as shown by the horizontal line. Click on Chart to enlarge it (Charts courtesy of http://www.freestockcharts.com/)

It's the Weekend - Let's Relax

2010-05-01T18:30:00.001-04:00

We have opened our Maine retreat. Nothing fancy, but we are happy to just keep the wood stove going and swat a few black flys as our major tasks. Monday will be soon enough to figure out how to invest in energy, or what Congress will be dong (or not doing). Have a great weekend. In New England we are blessed to have the good weather on the weekends right now.

"10-10-10"

2010-04-26T15:55:00.000-04:00

It always comes back to the fundamentals. I am finishing my reading of Suzy Welch's book "10-10-10" on the simple but powerful idea of viewing decisions from the perspective of 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. Anyone who has deferred gratification can relate to this, but Suzy’s presentation is a worthwhile read for anyone as new information, or as a refresher course.

Since I have always seen the "time frame" to be a critical parameter in planning and investment decisions, the 10-10-10 process seemed very relevant to what we do every day with our clients. The 10-10-10 process appears simple but gets very interesting when overlapped with our personal values.

This also is at the heart of our investment strategies, since we may have very firm convictions about an investment 10 months out, but have no idea if the investment will even exist in 10 years, let alone, be profitable. If you are curious, check it out here.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

"Evil?" Speculators

2010-04-26T11:58:00.001-04:00

Financial regulation is the congressional focus this month with Goldman Sachs doing the congressional committee version of a "Perp walk". I am continually amazed how often I am talking back to the television to correct the politicians and pundits poor grasp of market basics.

Every market is made up of investors (or hedgers in the case of various derivative markets), and speculators. "Speculator" has become a bad word while a "trader" still has some sibilance of honor. These folks provide the other side of the trade for the investor or hedger, and are essential to the operation of any market. They are not inherently good or bad, just a necessary component of providing a willing buyer or seller for the investor or hedger to accomplish their investing goals, and have the opportunity to close out their investment (liquidity) in a timely manner.

So when do things go wrong? When someone violates old adage "My word is my bond". So all the regulations are suppose to do is create an environment where the advantage of clarity and honesty has a greater reward than does being hidden or dishonest. Yes, money will always attract the crooks, but the vast majority of market participants recognize that everything stops if they do not operate openly and trust each other's word (spoken or electronic).

Let's hope the really bad guys get what they deserve without allowing the good guys to continue to raise and allocate capital for continue growth of the free world, and our piece of it.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226. The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

TIAA Real Estate Account - First Sign of a Bottom

2010-04-16T15:54:00.000-04:00

There has been a change in the trend in this account. I use this as a real life indicator of the commercial real estate market. You can follow it on the TIAA-CREF website. Click on Chart to Enlarge.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Average Rate on US Gov't Debt

2010-04-15T21:51:00.003-04:00

Having just come from the Worcester Tea Party rally in Lincoln Square, the national debt was on my mind.

How do we look at this? What does 11 Trillion in debt really mean? It seems to me that we will never be able to pay off the proposed unfunded obligations in addition to what we have already accumulated. This means the debt will become largely structural, meaning we will just roll it over and over. Right now the average interest paid on US Debt is less about 3.2%. See Treasury Direct. That means that we will pay an average of 11,000,000,000,000 times 3.2% per year, or 352 Billion dollars per year. To compare, the Defense Budget is about 549 Billion not counting the extra cost of war at 159 Billion. If this debt level doubles due to the unfunded mandates of Social Security and Medicare, it will exceed the Defense budget!

The problem is this: if we can grow our economy fast enough to keep the percentage of our GDP (which is currently wiggling just above 14 Trillion) there is little problem; however, if the increase in interest cost become increased taxation, the result will be a slowing of the growth in the GDP and a rapid increase in the percenatage just to service the debt!

When will it go unstable? It is hard for even our greatest economists to really tell, but most appear to agree that there is a point where this will lead to a lower standard of living for all of us. The amount we can borrow and still service the debt is not unlimited.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

S&P at 1200+, Dow at 11,000+: Sell?

2010-04-15T18:49:00.001-04:00

We like the information provided by economist George Dagnino and have been closely reading his comments. He is expecting a "consolidation" at this point but sees the market continuing its bull market if you look out more than 3 months.

Since it is now April 15th many of the seasonal IRA deposits will now be complete and it seems reasonable to expect some pause in the market rise. We remain cautious with about 20% remaining in high yield bond funds and we will be adding money to the market over the next 6 months or if we see any meaningful pull back.

Chart courtesy of Worden Brothers, Click to Enlarge.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

YTD Stock Markets

2010-04-11T16:02:00.000-04:00

Year to date strength in has been led by small and mid cap value funds International funds in developed countries have lagged US large cap stocks largely due to strength in the US dollar.

The following chart shows exchange traded funds that reflect International Developed Markets (EFA), US Large Cap (SPY) and the Dollar (UUP). Year to date the SPY is up around 6%, the Dollar is up about 3% which has reduced the EFA to about 3%. Chart from http://www.freestockcharts.com/ . Click on it to enlarge.
.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Interest Rates Moving Up?

2010-04-05T22:13:00.000-04:00

The 5 Year Treasury Yield is shown moving out of its recent channel toward higher rates. An increase in rates will put downward pressure on high quality bond funds. Click on chart to enclarge. Charts provided by FreeStockCharts.com .

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Up the Wall of Worry

2010-04-05T21:53:00.001-04:00

Money market funds are experiencing very large outflows as the nearly zero percent yeilds hit home with individual investors. In spite of low levels of cash in stock mutual funds, it appears that the bull market momentum is conintuing. Also of note is that most of the cash coming out of money funds is going into bond funds rather than stocks funds!. This indicates a continuing level of fear by the individual investor and from my point of view, bodes well for stocks contining to climb the "wall of worry."

The following chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows continued upward momentum following a short term bottom in February indicated by the arrow. Click on chart enlarge it.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Watch Out for the Tax Savings Hucksters

2010-03-29T13:45:00.000-04:00

Already the trade publications for financial advisers are starting to sell their solutions for the higher taxes caused by the new Health Care Law. After years of watching tax changes, I have notices that:
1. The tax laws change every year.
2. You don't know what will happen until the "technical corrections" are made to the law.
3. Most people are not affected much or can't use the "solutions" offered for the problem. (If you are one of the few, then see your advisers, not the press.)

Link to Market Watch and some of the possible taxes.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

"Who is John Galt?"

2010-03-27T11:41:00.000-04:00

One of my goals is to read all the books I neglected to read, or read properly, when I was in high school. Thank goodness for Books on CD and the Kindle reader! It makes catching up much easier on the eyes. My latest reading is "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand. My interest in her work was triggered when I learned that Alan Greenspan was a contemporary of Ayn Rand, and that he was significantly influenced by her. I am still reading, but I was struck by how much of the rhetoric in Part 1, about a move toward communism at the expense of human productivity in this novel, sounded like MSNBC, et al, as they discussed the "need" to help the uninsured and force the health care bill down our throats at all costs. I am still studying and have many more books to read, but I am sure that what has happened with the new Health Care law is a very big deal. But what can we do? "Who is John Galt?"

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Interest Rate Trend

2010-03-24T14:51:00.000-04:00

This is a chart of the 5 Year Treasury Note Rate (monthly). The scale on the right side is 10 times the interest rate (40.00 = 4.000%). Will this decade see a change in the downtrend?

Click on Image to Enlarge

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

The Long View

2010-03-24T11:26:00.000-04:00

This is an update of the Vanguard S&P 500 fund (vfinx) on a monthly basis, and going back to 1992. It includes the dividends (less the small fund fees) so it shows how a real account would have performed. Based upon the consolidation in 2004 we would expect 6 to 9 months of consolidation at this point, but the upside price momentum continues to be very strong.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

"Government Management" A Well Known Oxymoron

2010-03-18T15:53:00.000-04:00

I have been listening to some of the Senate's oversight of the US Postal Service on C-Span radio. If you every had a thought that we should move toward centralized government control of any major part of our economy (read "Health Care"), these proceedings should correct that error in thinking. By the way, we no longer use the postal service for critical, time sensitive mail in our firm, as we have had a number of checks never arrive! The junk mail is very reliable however.

Link to C-Span: http://www.cspan.org/

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Fewer Nickels and Dimes from You to the Banks

2010-03-14T13:29:00.000-04:00

Five Stars ***** for Bank of America leading the way with helping consumers avoid ridiculous fees on their debit cards. (Maybe it should only be 4 stars since the FED is changing the regs this summer, so they have a bit of regulatory encouragement).

If you have every bought a bagel and coffee with your debit card only to find that the $5 purchase had a overcharge fee of $25 to $30 because your paycheck had not yet posted to the account, knows what I am talking about. How fast can the banks in your area fix this problem?

Bank of America Will Help Customers Avoid Overdrawing Accounts

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.
The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen her

A 6 Signa Market? - Chart from Birnyi Associates Blog

2010-03-14T11:01:00.000-04:00

Thanks to PeterDag.blogspot.com for bringing this to our attention.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Real Estate REITs Showing Strength

2010-03-11T23:12:00.010-05:00

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Uncertainty and Opportunity

2010-03-11T22:14:00.000-05:00

I have been talking to clients about the fear of a third major bear markets and the prospects for stock market gains over the next few years. There is a lot of fear and uncertainty that some unpredictable shock to the stock market could occur again. There was 9/11/2001 then the 2008 Debt Crisis. What is next? Who knows?

The problem is, that these recent experiences of market losses naturally dominate our thinking, and make all of us hesitant to take advantage of the rising stock market periods that inevitably follow major market declines. Human behavior and the business cycle are much more reliable predictors of what the next few years are likely to bring. Understanding where we are in the "Human Behavior Cycle" and "Business Cycle" allows us to transcend our fears, and allows us to invest at low prices when there is uncertainty. This only comes from studying history and conditioning through investment experience.

Our outlook? Enjoy the recovery and growth of stocks over the next 3+ years followed by an economic expansion.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

Financials Ready to Breakout?

2010-03-05T17:46:00.000-05:00

Financial stocks, as represented by the exchange traded fund XLF, indicate a bounce off the 200 day moving average and appear ready to break out of their trading range after a 6 month consolidation. This would be bullish for the markets and the next week should give us a more clear indication.

Chart provided by FreeStockCharts.com and the Worden Brothers.

Click on chart to enlarge.

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.

An Interesting View of the Stock Market

2010-02-27T08:12:00.000-05:00

The following monthly view of the S&P500 index (I use symbol VFINX) puts some perspective on where we are in relation to future growth of stocks over the next few years. It looks like we have another 30% + to go even if we do not exceed the previous market high. Good news for the short term. Also note that the current consolidation is occurring at the same relative point as during the previous recovery.

Click on Image to Enlarge

If you would like John or Rosemarie Boyd to speak to your group or organization on financial planning or investment strategies contact Rosemarie at rboyd@boydstrategy.com or call her at 508-754-3226.

The comments on this blog do not represent individual Investment, Tax or Legal Advice, and do not represent an offer to buy or sell any security. Consult the appropriate professional before acting on any idea seen here.